Headline inflation, as measured by the wholesale price index, was 9.7 per cent in March, 8.7 per cent in April and 9.1 per cent in the following month.
The forecast has an error margin of four days, which is considered normal
Indian passenger vehicles market registered record wholesales of 43 lakh units in 2024, with companies like market leader Maruti Suzuki, Hyundai, Tata Motors, Toyota Kirloskar Motor, and Kia posting their best-ever annual domestic sales. The continued growth of SUVs, along with rural markets playing a key role in driving up car sales, helped the industry better the previous best of nearly 41.1 lakh units posted in 2023.
RBI faces contradictory signals.
After remaining unchanged in the previous week, inflation fell to a 40-month low of 4.83 per cent during the week ended February 19 due to cheaper edible oils, vegetables and some of the manufactured products despite higher global oil prices.
The wholesale price-based inflation stands at 9.9 per cent in March, but many analysts criticise the compilation of data, saying it includes several items that are no longer in vogue.
Inflation rose for the third consecutive week to 5.03 per cent for the week ended May 29 despite cheaper vegetables and fruits, eggs and several edible oils.
The wholesale price-based inflation rose to a four-month high of 14.55 per cent in March, mainly due to hardening of crude oil and commodity prices, even though vegetables witnessed easing of price pressures. As per the government data released on Monday, WPI inflation has remained in double digits for the 12th consecutive month beginning April 2021. The last time such a level of WPI was recorded was in November 2021, when inflation was 14.87 per cent.
The UPA government's commitment to keep the price rise under check notwithstanding, inflation rose by 0.47 per cent to 4.67 per cent for the week ended May 15 due to surging prices of mass consumption items like vegetables, milk and edible oils.
The 30-share Sensitive Index or Sensex ended the weak in the negative region. It tanked 620 points to close at 13,802, a loss of 4.3% compared to Thursday's close.
In its monetary and macroeconomic development report, RBI has raised hopes of a rate cut but also flagged some challenges.
Data released on Thursday showed prices of essential commodities like cereals went up by 12.7 per cent, rice by 11.75 per cent, wheat 12.6 per cent and pulses rose by 42 per cent.
RBI may wait for a substantial downtrend and maintain repo at the current level in its third-quarter review.
Some see CRR cut as tight liquidity continues.
A Reuters poll forecast the wholesale price index , India's main inflation measure, rose an annual 7.6 per cent in November, up from 7.45 per cent in October.
The Sensex opened with a positive gap of 63 points at 15,896, but soon slipped into red owing to nervousness in the markets. The Sensex finally ended with a significant loss of 489 points at 15,343. The NSE Nifty dropped 125 points to close at 4,647. BHEL and HDFC, L&T and M&M, ICICI Bank, Maruti and Reliance, HDFC Bank, DLF, Reliance Communications and Infosys, Cipla, Tata Motors and NTPC were major losers. Ambuja Cements, Reliance Energy, SBI and TCS too were losers.
An analysis by Business Standard suggests that for the week ended May 10, for which data will be released next Friday, the inflation rate will range between 7.67 per cent and 8.05 per cent, depending on how the index moves.
Benchmark Sensex declined 224 points on Wednesday, snapping its four-session winning streak, mainly due to sell-off in IT and pharma counters amid rising concerns over possible aggressive interest rate hikes to tame high inflation. The 30-share index rebounded more than 1,200 points from the early lows before settling at 60,346.97 points, a total loss of 224.11 points or 0.37 per cent compared to Tuesday's closing level. The broader NSE Nifty closed lower 66.30 points or 0.37 per cent at 18,003.75 points.
With inflation turning positive after 13 weeks, the Reserve Bank on Thursday said the wholesale price index may rise to six per cent by this fiscal end a development that may pose challenges to the central bank in maintaining a stable monetary policy.
The report said that weak global growth prospects have kept company prices in check in the international market and the same sentiments were being reflected in the domestic market. According to CMIE, prices of basic metal and metal products are projected to decline by 10.5 per cent in the current fiscal.
After remaining firm for two consecutive weeks, inflation fell marginally by 0.14 per cent to 4.26 per cent for the week ended April 24 even as prices rose for fruits, vegetables, eggs and various manufactured items, including edible oils.
The rate of inflation for the week stood\nat minus 1.14 per cent as against minus 1.61 per cent for the week ended June 6,\nofficial data released in New Delhi on Thursday.
This is the second week in a row when inflation remained in negative territory. The wholesale price index stood at 11.80 per cent during the corresponding week a year ago.
The worst of recession could coincide with the run-up to the elections.
National Sample Survey Organisation, a division within the ministry of statistics, has been roped in to collect price data for the new series and a dry run is on the anvil in the next couple of months. The new series will have 2004-05 as the base year, as against 1993-94 in the present mode and will reflect a consumption basket that is relevant in today's scenario, thereby making inflation data more reliable. The new series will have 2004-05 as the base year.
With pricing power of producers unlikely to strengthen and commodities ex-crude oil likely to remain sluggish in the immediate term, the core-WPI inflation may remain sub-zero in the rest of this calendar year.
Food inflation, measured by the Wholesale Price Index, was 7.33 per cent in the previous week.
After six weeks of decline, inflation rose marginally by 0.11 per cent to 4.33% during the week ended June 11.
Inflation based on the wholesale price index rose marginally to 4.2 per cent for the week ended November 12, from 4.14 per cent in the previous week mainly due to the rise in prices of minerals and non-food essential items.
Although inflation had touched 6.12 per cent during the week ending January 6 this fiscal, but it came down to 5.95 per cent in the following week.
Food inflation, as measured by the Wholesale Price Index, stood at 9.01 per cent in the previous week, while it was over 21 per cent in the first week of June last year.
BSE Capital Goods and FMCG indices surged between 1-2%
Price of potato, a daily consumable vegetable, rose 58.78 per cent during the month
The latest numbers likely to be seen by the government as a silver lining after the slowdown in economic growth during the first quarter.
RBI's unique focus on WPI inflation is misguided even as demand-driven factors have become relatively less important.
In its 'Asia Economic Alert', the banking and asset management behemoth also said that the Reserve Bank is likely to hike the short-term lending (repo) rate by 100 basis points in 2011 with the purpose of curbing inflationary pressure.
India's wholesale price index, the inflation measure most widely followed by policy-makers and investors, does not need another revision after the release of the final number eight weeks after the provisional numbers, as more than three-fourths data are collected by then, Pronab Sen, chief statistician, Ministry of Statistics has said.
The overall market breadth in BSE remained positive with 1,545 stocks advancing and 1,221 stocks declining.
'India's economy is growing faster compared to the developed economies of the world.' 'More importantly, it is growing faster compared to most of the developing economies.' 'The monsoon is not the only thing that drives the rural economy and certainly not the national economy.' 'It is too simplistic to reduce everything to the monsoon.'
Inflation shed another 0.12 per cent to tick eight months' low of 5.25 per cent for the week ended January 29, despite costlier fruits and vegetables.
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